Ternary lithium battery VS iron phosphate lithium battery, is the dichotomy or a monopoly?
About the power battery of new energy vehicle, there has been a debate on the market about the technical route of ternary lithium battery and lithium iron phosphate battery. The former has high cost but long endurance, while the latter has slightly worse endurance but low cost and high safety.
Due to subsidies from new energy policies in the past, ternary lithium batteries with high energy density dominated the market from 2017 to 2019. However, after the gradual decline of subsidies in 2019, lithium iron phosphate battery won the favor of the market with its cost advantage and technological breakthrough, and the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate is expected to exceed ternary lithium in 2021.
On November 18, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology again raised the energy density requirement for lithium-ion batteries. The market is expected that the cost advantage will expand the share of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials in the middle and low-end, and the middle and high-end passenger cars are mainly ternary cathode materials, and the ternary cathode will develop towards the trend of high nickel. Rongbai Technology, long-term lithium and other ternary material manufacturers, who can stand out in the trend of high nickel?
Policy tilt ternary lithium materials dominate the market
The rapid development and popularity of new energy vehicles are inseparable from the breakthrough of power battery performance and the reduction of cost. As the "heart" of new energy vehicles, the cost of power battery accounts for about 40% of the vehicle, and its performance directly determines the safety and range of the vehicle.
The development of new energy vehicle power battery has lithium ion battery, fuel cell, sodium ion battery and other technical routes, currently the most widely used is lithium ion battery. Lithium-ion batteries are mainly composed of cathode materials, cathode materials, diaphragm, electrolyte and battery shell materials, among which the cathode material mainly determines the energy density and safety of the battery, thus affecting the comprehensive performance of the battery. In addition, the anode material accounts for about 40% of the cost of lithium-ion battery, which also affects the overall cost of the battery, and then affects the vehicle cost. According to the different cathode materials, lithium ion batteries can be divided into lithium manganese acid battery, lithium cobalt acid battery, lithium iron phosphate battery, ternary lithium battery and so on.
Among them, ternary lithium battery and lithium iron phosphate battery are the absolute main force. Data from The China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance show that in the first 10 months of 2021, China's power battery accumulatively loaded 107.5GWh, of which ternary batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries accounted for 99.8% of the total. Ternary lithium battery and lithium iron phosphate battery have their own advantages. Ternary lithium battery is composed of nickel, cobalt and manganese (aluminum) elements in different proportions. It has the characteristics of low temperature resistance and high energy density, but the cost is high, flammable and explosive. The advantages of lithium iron phosphate battery are low cost, high cycle life, good thermal stability and high safety performance, but the disadvantages are low temperature resistance, low energy density and poor endurance. In the past few years, due to policy subsidies, cost and other factors, the market share of ternary lithium battery and lithium iron phosphate battery fluctuated. In the early stage of the development of new energy vehicles, considering emissions and fuel economy, the policy is inclined to commercial vehicles. Lithium iron phosphate's safety, cycle life and other advantages make it quickly become the first choice for the positive pole, and its market share is far ahead.
In 2016, lithium iron phosphate batteries accounted for 69% of the domestic power battery market. However, in 2017, the market position of lithium iron phosphate and ternary lithium batteries changed as China adjusted its subsidy policy for new energy vehicles and included battery energy density as a subsidy reference index for the first time. At that time, the energy density of lithium iron phosphate batteries was mainly concentrated in 70-80Wh/Kg, which could not meet the standard of "the mass energy density of pure electric passenger car power battery system should not be less than 90Wh/Kg, and the subsidy for those higher than 120Wh/Kg should be 1.1 times", which led to the market gradually shifting to ternary lithium batteries with higher energy density. In 2018, the market share of lithium iron phosphate batteries was surpassed by ternary lithium batteries for the first time. According to the power Battery Alliance data, in 2018, the cumulative output of domestic power batteries reached 70.6GWh, of which ternary batteries accounted for 55.5%, and lithium iron phosphate batteries accounted for 39.7%. In the first quarter of 2020, the market share of three yuan lithium battery increased to 76%, there is a dominant trend, even some brokers also believe that three yuan materials will dominate the positive market. No one, however, expected a reversal of competition for lithium batteries.
Lithium iron phosphate batteries are making a comeback after subsidies were withdrawn
The common ternary cathode material is composed of nickel, cobalt and manganese, the chemical formula is LinixCoYMN1-X-YO2, and the models are NCM333, NCM523, NCM622, NCM811. The numbers 333 and 811 refer to the molar coefficient ratio of Ni/Co/Mn in NCM material. Compare NCM333 with NCM811, a ternary cathode material with high nickel and low cobalt content.
Because cobalt is a relatively scarce metal and the market price of cobalt is high, the higher the cobalt content, the higher the cost of power batteries will increase. By increasing the content of nickel metal with low price and reducing the content of cobalt metal with high price, not only the energy density can be improved, but also the cost of ternary cathode materials can be reduced. Therefore, ternary cathode materials gradually develop to be highly nickelized or even cobalt-free, and high-nickel materials such as NCM622, NCM811 and NCA (nickel, cobalt and aluminum) become the mainstream.
The rapid development of three cathode materials after 2017, without the help of subsidies, and since 2019, with the gradual decline of new energy vehicle subsidies, the cost has become a matter that vehicle manufacturers have to consider. With the launch of NINGde TIMES CTP technology and BYD blade battery technology, lithium iron phosphate battery with lower cost and improved performance has won the favor of oems.